Writing / Publication archive003 essays · 11 index terms
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- 003LeadMarkov Chain Monte Carlo: Intuition, Algorithms, Diagnostics, and Why the Chain Moves the Way It DoesA guide to MCMC with interactive visuals: why Bayesian inference becomes an integration problem, how Metropolis-Hastings works, and how geometry shapes mixing and diagnostics.MCMC · Bayesian Methods
- 002Bayesian vs. Frequentist: Two Ways of Thinking About UncertaintyTwo dominant frameworks of statistical inference—Frequentist and Bayesian—start from the same data but differ in what probability means and how uncertainty is quantified.Bayesian Methods · Frequentist Methods
- 001FIA and MYGA: General Account Economics, Crediting Design, and Actuarial Risk ManagementA technical deep-dive into fixed indexed annuities (FIAs) and multi-year guaranteed annuities (MYGAs): crediting mechanics, option budgets, hedging/ALM interactions, behavioral risk, and the reserve/capital constraints that determine what designs are actually feasible.Actuarial Science · Insurance