Research Systems, Bayesian Methods, Long-Form Writing
Amandeep Singh — Data Scientist | Actuarial Analyst | Statistician
Mathematically driven problem-solver applying ML/AI to real-world decisions, with strength in statistical modeling, data interpretation, and building empirical, scalable solutions. Thrives in research-intensive, cross-functional teams and communicates complex ideas clearly.
Current Lens
Research that treats technical systems, institutional constraints, and public explanation as part of the same job.
Latest Essay
Umar Khalid: Activism, UAPA Prosecution, and the Politics of Trial by Jail in India
A legal-political analysis of Umar Khalid's UAPA prosecution, repeated bail denials, and what the case reveals about dissent, minority vulnerability, and pretrial punishment in India.
Core Territories
Bayesian macro risk, institutional analysis, and writing built for close reading.
The through-line here is concrete rather than branding-heavy: models for uncertain systems, essays on law and state power, and technical work explained plainly enough to inspect.
Bayesian Methods
Essays and projects on Bayesian statistics, nonparametrics, inference, and technical modeling.
Macro Risk
Work on macroeconomic tail risk, actuarial design, insurance systems, annuities, and financial stress.
India, Law & Politics
Essays on Indian law, dissent, political structure, sovereignty, caste, and state power.
Flagship Work
Projects with enough room for methodology, tradeoffs, and outcome.
Flagship Case Study
Open case studyBayesian Nonparametric Estimation of Time-Varying Macroeconomic Tail Risk
A Bayesian nonparametric framework for tracking how macroeconomic downside risk evolves over time, using a time-dependent Dirichlet process mixture on long-run cross-country consumption growth data.
How I Work
Start with the source material, make the method explicit, then write for a skeptical reader.
The workflow is usually the same: define the question sharply, inspect the data or primary material, show the model or institutional mechanism, and be clear about what the evidence does and does not support.
Selected Writing
Essays that carry argument, structure, and evidence all the way through.
Umar Khalid: Activism, UAPA Prosecution, and the Politics of Trial by Jail in India
A legal-political analysis of Umar Khalid's UAPA prosecution, repeated bail denials, and what the case reveals about dissent, minority vulnerability, and pretrial punishment in India.
More From The Archive
Open archiveA long-form essay on layered sovereignty in South Asia, showing how courts, chiefs, estates, and treaty-bound states governed as semi-autonomous units before modern constitutional unification.
A long-form legal and political essay on Kunal Kamra’s public career, the escalation from threats to formal state action, and what his cases reveal about speech, power, and institutional pressure in India.
A sharp legal-political essay on protest, preventive detention, and what the Sonam Wangchuk case reveals about the Indian state and the narrowing space for dissent.
Contact
Use email for collaborations, papers, or research questions.
The best outreach messages include the problem, the constraint set, and the kind of help you want. That makes it easier to tell quickly whether the fit is modeling, writing, or joint research.
Knowledge Atlas
A map of the work, organized by methods, questions, and recurring domains.
The site now has a live atlas linking essays and projects across a few durable territories. It is the fastest way to understand how the work fits together.
Methods & Modeling
Bayesian methods, nonparametrics, and estimation.
Risk & Macroeconomics
Tail risk, finance, actuarial systems, and macro stress.
Law, Policy & History
Institutions, state power, dissent, and historical structure.