Bayesian Statistics, Risk, and Law
Amandeep Singh — Data Scientist | Actuarial Analyst | Statistician
Mathematically driven problem-solver applying ML/AI to real-world decisions, with strength in statistical modeling, data interpretation, and building empirical, scalable solutions. Thrives in research-intensive, cross-functional teams and communicates complex ideas clearly.
Areas of work
Summary
Research across statistical modeling, institutional analysis, and long-form writing.
Latest Essay
Child Babas and the Crisis of Critical Thinking
A long-form social criticism essay on the commercialization of child religious figures in India, the psychological economy that sustains it, and the cost it imposes on childhood, science, and public reasoning.
Topics
Most of the site falls into three subject areas.
Bayesian modeling, macro-financial risk, and India’s legal and political institutions.
Bayesian Methods
Essays and projects on Bayesian statistics, nonparametrics, inference, and technical modeling.
Macro Risk
Work on macroeconomic tail risk, actuarial design, insurance systems, annuities, and financial stress.
India, Law & Politics
Essays on Indian law, dissent, political structure, sovereignty, caste, and state power.
Selected Projects
Projects with methods, results, and tradeoffs.
Selected Project
Open projectBayesian Nonparametric Estimation of Time-Varying Macroeconomic Tail Risk
A Bayesian nonparametric framework for tracking how macroeconomic downside risk evolves over time, using a time-dependent Dirichlet process mixture on long-run cross-country consumption growth data.
Method
Start with the question, then show the evidence and the limits.
I usually begin with the source material or the data, make the method explicit, and state clearly what the evidence supports and what it does not.
Selected Writing
Essays with full argument and supporting evidence.
Child Babas and the Crisis of Critical Thinking
A long-form social criticism essay on the commercialization of child religious figures in India, the psychological economy that sustains it, and the cost it imposes on childhood, science, and public reasoning.
More From The Archive
Open archive
An unflinching indictment of India's district and subordinate courts — their corruption, casteism, nepotism, and institutional rot — and a reckoning with the Supreme Court leadership that refuses to confront it.
A legal-political analysis of the 1984 anti-Sikh violence, the architecture of delayed justice, the drift of majoritarian statecraft, and the limited but real risk of Khalistan's fringe return.
A guide to MCMC with interactive visuals: why Bayesian inference becomes an integration problem, how Metropolis-Hastings works, and how geometry shapes mixing and diagnostics.
Contact
Email works best for research, writing, and project inquiries.
Include the problem, the timeline, and the kind of help you need.
Atlas
A map of essays and projects by subject.
Use the atlas to move across related posts, projects, and methods.
Methods & Modeling
Bayesian methods, nonparametrics, and estimation.
Risk & Macroeconomics
Tail risk, finance, actuarial systems, and macro stress.
Law, Policy & History
Institutions, state power, dissent, and historical structure.